USDA Beef/Cattle Outlook: May 2024
USDA Economic Research Service | May 16, 2024
The ERS outlook projected U.S. beef production to fall 6 % in 2025 to 25.1 billion lb, leading per‑capita disappearance to drop to 55.6 lb. For 2024, heavier carcass weights and a shift of marketings to the second half lifted production to 26.6 billion lb. High heifer and cow slaughter and large placements mean the calf crop will be smaller in 2025. The forecast called for fed steer prices to average $188/cwt in 2025 (up 3 %), feeder steers (750–800 lb) $259/cwt, and cull cows $125/cwt.
Cow‑Calf Corner – Cattle Markets Back on Track
Derrell S. Peel (OSU Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist) | April 29, 2024
After the detection of avian influenza in dairy cattle roiled markets, OSU reported that futures and cash cattle markets largely recovered. Steer calf prices bounced off recent lows but were unlikely to regain March highs; heavy feeder cattle prices recovered due to strong feedlot demand and seasonal tendencies. The U.S. feeder supply was down 4.2 % year‑over‑year, but Oklahoma’s feeder supply was up 6.7 % thanks to wheat grazing. Auction volumes were down 8.7 % year‑over‑year.
2024 Cattle Prices Hit New Highs
Benjamin R. “Ben” Bowman (Ohio State University Extension economist) | March 13, 2024
OSU’s newsletter noted that in early March average weekly steer prices in Mississippi were 33–47 % higher than a year earlier and roughly 80 % higher than in March 2022. Cull cow prices were about 25 % above the previous year and 40 % above two years earlier. Tight feeder cattle supplies due to increased cow culling and low heifer retention were cited. Producers are encouraged to use price‑risk management tools (futures, options or USDA LRP) as feeder cattle futures for autumn were trading near
United States Cattle on Feed Up Slightly
USDA/NASS via Cattle Range | Feb. 23, 2024
The February cattle‑on‑feed report listed 11.8 million cattle on feed (slightly above a year earlier). January placements were 1.79 million head, 7 % below 2023, while marketings were 1.84 million head, just below the prior year. Feedlots with ≥1,000 head capacity represented 82.7 % of all cattle on feed.
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent
USDA/NASS via Cattle Range | Jan. 19, 2024
The January Cattle‑on‑Feed report showed 11.9 million cattle and calves on feed in U.S. feedlots with capacity of ≥1,000 head — 2 % above a year earlier. Steers and steer calves accounted for 7.20 million head (≈60 % of the total), while heifers and heifer calves were 4.74 million head. Placements during December 2023 were 1.70 million head (4 % below 2022) and marketings were 1.73 million head.
Governor’s Summit Speaker Bio Notes FarmAfield Engineer Joined Full-Time in May 2021
State of Nebraska Governor’s Summit | Jan. 1, 2024
A Nebraska Governor’s Summit speaker bio for Brody Zabel notes he joined FarmAfield full-time in May 2021 after graduating in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.
Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook – December 2023
ERS analysts | Dec. 14, 2023
Higher cow slaughter and heavier carcasses were expected to offset lower fed‑cattle slaughter, keeping the 2023 beef‑production forecast steady; larger placements will boost 2024 production to 25.990 billion lb. Price projections were reduced due to higher output and softer demand; fourth‑quarter 2023 import forecasts were raised while exports were cut.
AgLetter: November 2023
David Oppedahl (Chicago Fed) | Nov. 14, 2023
In the Chicago Fed district, “good” farmland values rose 1% from Q2 to Q3 2023 and were 5% higher year‑over‑year— the slowest growth since 2020. Indiana led with a 16% gain while Illinois and Wisconsin posted 6% and 9% gains; real farmland values were up less than 2% after adjusting for inflation. Rising interest rates and lower crop revenues likely dampened values.
Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook – October 2023
Russell Knight & Hannah Taylor | Oct. 18, 2023
USDA raised its 2023 beef‑production forecast to 26.976 billion lb due to higher expected cow slaughter and projected 2024 production of 25.275 billion lb; price forecasts were lowered as packer margins narrowed. Exports were expected to decline because of stronger competition in Asia while imports were raised.
Cattle Market Signals: High Costs, Projected Profits and Beef Demand
Nevil Speer | Sept. 8, 2023
Weather‑related forage shortages left producers with just 28.9 million beef cows—the smallest starting herd since 1962; hay supplies were near lows and high costs discouraged retention. LMIC projected cow‑calf profits exceeding $300/ head and strong retail demand kept beef prices around $7.60/lb.
Land Values 2023 Summary
USDA NASS | Aug. 4, 2023
The USDA reported average farm real estate values of $4,080/ acre in 2023—up 7.4% from 2022. Cropland averaged $5,460/ acre (up 8.1%) and pasture averaged $1,760/ acre (up 6.7%).
July 2023 Cattle Inventory Report – No Herd Rebuilding in Sight
Mark Mauldin | July 28, 2023
USDA’s July 1 cattle report showed the beef‑cow herd at 29.4 million (– 2.6%) and total cattle and calves at 95.9 million (– 2.7%). Replacement heifers fell to the lowest level in 50 years and heifers made up 39.9% of feedlot inventories, signalling continued liquidation.
Fed cattle prices rally to record levels ahead of expectations
Terrain analysts | June 23, 2023
First‑half U.S. cattle slaughter was down 3.9%, cutting beef production 4.9%; tight supplies lifted all classes of cattle to record prices. 700‑900 lb steers were projected $235 – $270/cwt, fall‑delivery calves $275 – $300/cwt and the average fed‑cattle price range was raised to $169 – $174/ cwt.
Midwest farmland values keep climbing
Momentum West / Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | May 15, 2023
A regional banking survey showed farmland values in the Chicago Fed district (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan) were 15% higher in Q1 2023 than a year earlier—the eighth consecutive quarter of double‑digit gains.
While cattle prices rise, high costs undermine profits
James Mitchell (Extension economist) | April 14, 2023
Fed‑steer prices exceeded $175/ cwt, roughly 20‑30 cwt above a year earlier, yet inflation and high input costs (feed, fertiliser, fuel) eroded returns; drought in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas kept pastures poor and forced continued culling.
Farmland Values Continue Upward Rise
Gary Schnitkey et al. | March 23, 2023
Illinois farmland prices kept climbing: Class A land up 16%, Class B up 17%, Class C and D up 7%, and recreational land up 17%. Over two years, high‑quality farmland rose more than 45% due to low interest rates and strong commodity prices.
“Smallest Cattle Herd in Eight Years: Will 2023 Set Record Prices?
Zhiguo Cai & Todd Hagerman (University of Illinois) | Feb. 6, 2023
USDA’s Jan. 1 herd inventory fell to 89.3 million head and beef cows to 28.9 million, the lowest since 1962; replacement heifers were down 6% and beef production was forecast 6.5% lower, suggesting high slaughter‑steer prices ($157 – $166/cwt) but continued caution due to high feed costs.
2023 Cattle Market Outlook: production drops as herd shrinks
AFBF analysts | Jan. 10, 2023
USDA projected 2023 beef production to fall about 7% to 26.4 billion lb as drought‑driven herd liquidation shrank supplies; packers struggled to secure cattle, lifting cash prices above $156/cwt while high feed costs and interest rates squeezed margins.
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: December 2022
USDA Economic Research Service | Dec. 15, 2022
The December ERS outlook raised fourth‑quarter 2022 beef production by 70 million lb because slaughter and carcass weights were higher than expected. The Nov. 1 feedlot inventory was 11.706 million head (2% below a year earlier), and October net placements were 2.054 million head, the lowest since the series began in 1996. Marketings were 1.802 million head. About 69% of the U.S. cattle herd was located in areas experiencing drought.
Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: November 2022
USDA Economic Research Service | Nov. 16, 2022
The November ERS report noted that widespread drought affected 85% of the U.S. and that about 76% of the cattle herd was in drought‑stricken areas. The Oct. 1 feedlot inventory was 11.449 million head, down about 1% from a year earlier; September feedlot net placements were 2.027 million head (–4% y/y) and marketings were 1.860 million head (+4%).